Mark Warner Interviewed About the Fate of the Canada-U.S. FTA if U.S. Withdraws from NAFTA

Mark Warner was quoted in the Globe and Mail, the Chronicle Herald, the Winnipeg Free Press, CBC News, CTV News, and Global News about Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s threats to renegotiate or withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the prospects prospects for resurrecting the 1987 Canada-U.S. FTA (CUSFTA) if US withdraws from NAFTA. (August 14, 2016)

Theoretically, NAFTA could remain in force between Mexico and Canada if both parties choose to do so. Canada considers CUSFTA as “suspended”, not terminated. It isn’t clear that the United States agrees with that characterization. Ultimately, the question of whether CUSFTA is suspended or terminated comes down to the intent of the parties as a matter of international law. As a practical matter, CUSFTA would only snap back if the new U.S. President agreed to that, and that could also easily be the subject of litigation in the U.S. or internationally. In any case, CUSFTA would likely have to be updated in some respects before it could come back into force and that would require negotiations and room for the “art of the deal” to be put to the test.

Mr. Warner, a Canadian and U.S. lawyer, has advised governments on trade policy and trade negotiations and previously worked on trade and competition issues as counsel in the OECD Trade Directorate. Mr. Warner was Legal Director of the Ontario Ministry of Economic Development & Trade and advised Ontario in the Canada-EU Trade Agreement (CETA) negotiations and on several NAFTA Chapter 11 Investor-State Arbitrations. He is co-author of a leading Canadian trade law treatise, has also published numerous articles and has been invited to speak at conferences around the world.